Cited 10 times since 2021 (3.2 per year) source: EuropePMC Science advances, Volume 7, Issue 13, 26 4 2021, Pages eabd7658 Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe. Kurganskiy A, Creer S, de Vere N, Griffith GW, Osborne NJ, Wheeler BW, McInnes RN, Clewlow Y, Barber A, Brennan GL, Hanlon HM, Hegarty M, Potter C, Rowney F, Adams-Groom B, Petch GM, Pashley CH, Satchwell J, de Weger LA, Rasmussen K, Oliver G, Sindt C, Bruffaerts N, PollerGEN Consortium, Skjøth CA
Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season's severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.
